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desertdog

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desertdog last won the day on March 16 2017

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About desertdog

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    Just A Dusty Dog
  • Birthday December 3

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    Ed

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  1. There are a couple of things working against you. 1. Static charge of the disturbed dust particles. Some will stick more to a metal surface than others, based on mineral and moisture content. 2. Wax is sticky. The 'smooth' you feel on your paint is partly the wax itself, but also partly the wax filling in small imperfections in the painted surface. Try this - run a dry hand through a bowl of flour. Now go apply some skin lotion to your other hand and rub it in fully. Repeat the experiment. See much must more crap sticks to your hand. The upside is when you go to remove the dust, any scratching it does is done to the wax layer, not the clearcoat.
  2. If it's nice out, hand wash and maybe a coat of wax. If the weather is crappy, I'll go to the DIY wash, drop 7 bucks in quarters, and get things moderately clean. How often? When I really have absolutely nothing better to do.
  3. Based on the above data, I would start with a circle from the car, radius (r) of 1.3 miles. In that circle you have a 50/50 chance of finding her, statistically. Within that search area, I would break up the circle into 45 degree or 90 degree octants or quadrants. Within each quadrant, I would: 1. Do a hasty search of every linear feature - drainage, road, draw, gully, ridge, creek bed, trail, and so on. 2. Repeat the hasty paths, but offset to 50 yards, left of the feature. 3. Repeat #2, but offset to 50 yards, right of the feature. 4. Take a waypoint for every piece of possible evidence at least 100 yards from the IPP/LKP, even if you are not sure it's tied to her. Plot this on a map and review for emergent patterns. 5. Determine if there are any visible features during the hasty and offset-hasty search that would appear enticing to a lost, bipolar individual: trees, caves, adits, springs, water troughs, buildings, etc. 6. If visible features are noted, search those areas for evidence of the subject or the subject proper. 7. Where elevation change and cover suggest, run the offset hasty searches in the opposite direction. This provides better visual perspectives on the 'other side' of vegetation and terrain features. 8. If any discernible footprints remain, photograph them with a tape measure for reference. Also, set up a tracking stick to see if you can find additional prints and establish direction of travel. That's a lot, and that's all I'm going to suggest for now. The next step is grid searches, but that requires more planning and far more personnel that you have available to you, Bob. It's not uncommon for us to run 6 or 7 operational periods (OP = 8 hours) and still come up empty. For the Hart family up in Mendocino County, teams took part in more OP's than that, and it wasn't until a body washed up that the Sheriff had a solid 'find'. But, keep in mind that if more information comes out (eyewitness sightings, confirmation of footwear tied to known prints establishing a DOT, verification of cigarette brand, water bottle brand, etc.), you could end up doing this ALL over again, but with a NEW IPP/LKP. Finally, I'm leaving a lot out of this, mainly how to form non-circle search regions. It's involved, it's half art, half science, and I lack the energy to get into it here. Plus there are many competing theories, and the data sets are too small to be (IMO) statistically significant. All data came from ISRID and related earlier sources. Techniques (1-8) above are my own deduction based on training and experience. Take it for what it's worth. I'm happy to sit down and go over maps with you in more detail, too. I'm in ELT training all day Saturday, but I may have some free time late Saturday evening.
  4. OK, work has been a little hectic, but I can at least put down some information that may be of help. First, the assumptions and inferences: I'm assuming a 'subject type' of 'mentally ill'. I'm also going to break down the 'hiker' subject type for reasons described below. I'm assuming she could reach at least the median distance from LKP (aka the IPP), which in turn I'm going to infer as the location of her vehicle. We can change this if and when we can link some evidence that puts here elsewhere. I'll call the climate domain 'dry' and I'm going to categorize this as 'non-mountainous' for both subject types. From all that, the data sets to work with are incredibly small. However, what we end up with is this: Median Subject Distance from IPP (n=8) -- 0.6 miles Subject Find Location (n=7) -- Road: 29% -- Structure, Water, Scrub, Woods, Field: 14% (for each) Subject Scenario (e.g. reason for search) (n=180) -- Evading: 57% -- Lost: 32% Subject Track Offset (n=8) -- Median: 23 meters I'm going to go in a different direction, and look at 'hiker' subject type. Why? If she was in a manic state, or if she was under the influence of narcotics (stimulant), her energy levels and physical progress may not coincide with her apparent physical condition if she tried to hike out. Though there is no data for bipolar subjects in the mania or hypomania phase, medical literature suggests increased physical abilities during the manic pole of the disorder. For Hiker Median Subject Distance from IPP (n=58) -- 1.3 miles Elevation change (downhill) (n not stated) -- 52% downhill -- 48% uphill -- Median elevation gain for uphill: 956 feet -- Median elevation loss for downhill: 975 feet Median Dispersion angle (n=28) [ this is the angle offset from intended direction of travel ] -- 47 degrees Find Location (n=196) -- Linear feature: 31% -- Drainage: 18% -- Road: 17% -- Structure: 10% Median Track offset (n=40) [ this is the 'to the left or right' of the track followed, assuming they did not disperse at an angle ] -- 100 yards
  5. Your ideas are solid, and her behavior was unpredictable. I don't mind grabbing gear and doing recon on any of the nearby mines at some point in the next couple of weeks with you. It's pretty easy for me and if she went in for shade, she likely didn't go back more than a few yards. I'm thinking a refined search over ground you already covered, then move to the east and west of the car, first as a hasty, then in more detail. Would be nice to know her cigarette brand, and locations of places you found butts matching the brand, if that's even possible. A direction of travel would be very helpful. Baby wipes can blow around more easily than cigarette butts, so I'm not putting much emphasis on those w/out solid confirmation of type/brand (which I don't think you were able to do). Also, if any photos of the car's interior exist from after it was found, but before it was searched or cleaned, would help. I'm curious about debris in the car (rocks, dirt, dust). It could indicate if she remained in the car, slept in the back the first night, moved from driver side to passenger side, or front to rear, to indicate an intention to make camp at least initially. Not sure if that exists, either. Knowing her footwear could help, too. The wrong shoes would slow anyone down, a lot. Good boots could keep her moving longer and faster. So many unknowns.
  6. Hrm. After plotting the KML files and drawing a 1.6 mi. circle from there, your tracks show what we call scenario lock - you assume she went back the way she came. That does have the highest probability of being correct. But don't let it negative the less-obvious. I'm going to continue studying the map for likely decision points and if she was lost, areas she might have direction-sampled or route sampled. What a mess.
  7. So here's the test. If you want to go with a 10 yard distance, walk 5 yards, and place an object between you. It should be representative of what you might find - a backpack, a hat, an item of clothing, etc. Then, run your pattern. Can both of you see it? Yes, OK, that's a good sign. No? You need to close up the distance. Since you're looking for a body, 10 yards might be OK. It's a tough call. In terms of the grids, it's better to set those up before you go out, with them plotted into a GPS. That way you just follow the 'arrow' and maintain your grid. But again, too much going on here. I'm trying to internalize and conceptualize the jobs of an entire overhead (OH) staff. It's a little more daunting than I anticipated.
  8. Can you repost the coordinates for her car? I want to first call that the Last Known Point and plot out the median find distance for a subject of her type. We call this the IPP - Initial Planning Point. I know you found clues (cigarette butts), so that could move the IPP to that new location, assuming you're 100% certain as to the brand being correct and associated directly with the subject. If not, it's worth considering, but not (yet) worth moving the IPP. On another related topic, we should dive into your search methods. A trail run is a one tactic in a hasty (effectively a 'reflex task') search. But it seems like you're combining reflex tasks with other methods, e.g. grid searches. It's hard to tell from the videos what your distances are between searchers, but have you considered the critical separation distance (largely determined by terrain and vegetation, and also by the skill and ability of the searcher)? You could have walked past her if there was too much distance, which drops the Probability of Detection to near zero (and we've not yet gotten to Probability of Area, yet). I'm trying to work this out in my head, but it's getting a little disorganized. I think for where you are looking, the Probability of Area is high, but your Probability of Detection is low (<50% for an unresponsive subject). Something else I did not previously consider is that subjects are very likely to move at night, especially in what we refer to as a 'dry domain', like this area. Depending on how she was equipped, she may have moved towards light at night (I think this was suggested previously), and possibly not the 'correct' lights. Finally, I'm struggling with how to classify her as a subject. Certainly she was mentally ill, but if she was free of negative symptoms, it may be wrong to classify her that way. Like I said before, I'm still working on this. Mostly trying to organize myself as I try to draw up a search plan. Lots of work, which is why there is usually a team of people involved (and a lot more information, too).
  9. I've never seen one all alone. Usually there has been a solar panel and a small telemetry package+yagi nearby (20-40 feet or so). That one baffles me. There appears to be a guzzler near here: 40.26126,-118.7643305, so they may just use it to compare guzzler contents with gauge contents. There is also something else there, that looks like it may be solar panels, or just tin roofing. Hard to tell.
  10. Old timber and hardware - those are the things I really like to preserve and restore. Large timbers, especially those larger than 16"x16", hold a unique historic significance all their own, apart from whatever structure they once supported. What you're looking at there is usually old growth forest timber, the likes of which won't be seen again for centuries. Tight grain, often Douglas Fir around these parts, and often sound enough for structural re-use. Those were fine old trees we killed, seems a shame to let the last of their contribution just sit and rot after all the trouble we went through in the first place.
  11. Question - you saw these receipts/papers - were you able to acquire any PII from the video? Comparison - many metal detecting videos show folks finding lots of junk, most of which they leave in place. A good number of people criticize the author for not taking out every single piece of trash from the local park/creek/river. Those people are detached from reality - it would take a fleet of dump trucks to haul out every last piece of trash. Same with old receipts - Bob would have a full-time job on his hands (and a non-paid one, I might add) gathering and destroying (or returning) any PII. Of course returning PII could be just as damaging, by making the subject matter known to another family member. So realistically, problems Bob didn't create aren't Bob's to fix. Or anyone else's for that matter. It's an entirely different matter if someone volunteers to go fix someone else's problems, but I don't think that's the case here.
  12. I take my oldest (9), but I make sure the destination is age-appropriate. I won't drag her into a mine or a rickety old mill. But I'll let her crawl into caves at the beach and other places (like she did in one of my recent YT videos). She's daring and fearless, she was ready to go as long as I had a flashlight for her to use. She loves to read, so much so that when the wife and I tell her to go outside and play, she obeys. She goes outside, and takes books with her, climbs a tree, and reads. Not quite what I was hoping for, but it's a start.
  13. I quit K&N 20 years ago. I was young and stupid and wanted to go fast, so I bought one to go with everything else I added. The first time I went to service the filter, I found a fine sheen of dust on the intake tube and a fine sheen of oil on my MAF sensor. Pulled the filter, cleaned the intake & MAF, changed the oil, and never looked back. Thinking about it at the time, a filter is a restriction on flow, and the only way you get more flow is with less restriction. Gauze isn't magic, and oiled gauze less so. Stock paper filters (factory costs about the same as aftermarket if you shop it) are good enough for me. Same with oil filters - stock filters can be had for about the same as aftermarket, and the stock has more media and better construction than the aftermarket. Snake oil.
  14. Ah, OK, that makes more sense. I was going to say, most of the data I've seen with 150 in 300BLK suggests it is similar to 30-30 Win as far as external ballistics go.
  15. You're getting near 308 Win speeds with 150 grain projectiles in 300 BLK? I haven't seen a safe way to do that with such a heavy projectile, but if you have a handload, please do share the data! I was pondering 110-130gr for my loads when I get to that point, but I need to buy dies first. I'm lagging so far behind on stuff lately....
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